Markets weekly

Company news will pick up pace this week, with fourth-quarter earnings being published for more than 800 companies. That said, key macro data and economic news will also remain on investors’ watch list.
In the eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting, scheduled for 23 January, is the main event in the spotlight. The first rate-setting meeting of 2020, and with new ECB president Christine Lagarde at the helm, is likely to be to the dovish side. Further easing should be off the table for the time being, especially without a significant worsening in the bloc’s macroeconomic backdrop.
The eurozone and UK publish January’s IHS Markit flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMI). The Bank of England will likely have their eyes peeled on the UK flash data before their 30 January meeting for any imminent signs of recovery after the economy has showed signs of stuttering.
In the US, investors will closely monitor January’s IHS Markit flash PMIs for an indication on the health of both the services and manufacturing parts of the economy. After the last readings showed signs of improvement in December, expectations for 2020 are positive with services expected to remain resilient and hopes of further recovery in US manufacturing activity.
While some stabilisation is probable, especially on the back of the US-China phase one trade de-escalation, a sharp acceleration seems unlikely with uncertainty still elevated. In addition, investors will examine December’s new home sales data to assess the health of the housing sector.

Subdued inflation and weak output: is it time for an “insurance” cut?

UK November gross domestic product (GDP) data shows an economy that has weakened but kept afloat despite businesses grappling with uncertainty. Not least the extension of article 50 and the subsequent calling of December’s election.
On a year-on-year basis, GDP growth of 0.6% was the weakest since June 2012 and continues the contraction in output seen in 2019. The weakness was widespread across industrial production and the dominant services sector, which fell 0.3% month on month, the worst since February 2018.
However, the first half of the year could see modest growth, facilitated by some potential tailwinds.

  1. The more than likely passing of the withdrawal agreement bill in parliament could support confidence and lower some uncertainty.
  2. The March budget may pave the way for some fiscal stimulus.

The weakness and the juxtaposing potential for a recovery provides the members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) with a dilemma before their 30 January meeting.
On the one hand, they could continue to leave rates unchanged in case a recovery surfaces in the first half of 2020, as well as clarity on Brexit, and vote for a rate cut if this does not materialise. However, this would leave the risk of being reactive as opposed to proactive.
On the other hand, the MPC could provide an “insurance” cut to provide support should growth continue to stutter while running the risk of overheating the economy and generating inflationary pressure on the upside. This risk is definitely lowered by December inflation reaching a three-year low at 1.3%.
With two MPC members already dissenting in favour of rate cuts and Governor Mark Carney, Silvana Tenreyro and Jan Vlieghe starting to express concerns about the economy, the latter is looking increasingly more likely than the former.
At the time of writing, the rates market prices in approximately a 62% chance of a rate cut in January, with a 25 basis point cut fully priced in by June.
For more information contact Barclays Private Bank in Monaco by clicking here or on +377 93 15 35 35
 

Texas Hold’Em at the Casino de Monte-Carlo

The Casino de Monte-Carlo is hosting Texas Hold’em Ultimate Poker Tournaments every Thursday through to the end of February.

Looking for a way to have some fun during these dark, cold winter nights? Why not give Thursday night poker a go? 

Whether you’re an amateur, regular or newcomer, all are welcome to the Casino de Monte-Carlo for evenings filled with anticipation and excitement as they host these world-class poker events.  

For a mere €50 buy in, players can spend an adrenaline-filled evening playing Texas Hold’em against other card sharks for a guaranteed prize pot of €1,000 each week.

The events will be held 23rd and 30th January, as well as 6th, 13th, 20th and 27th February at the Salle Europe of the Casino de Monte-Carlo from 7pm to 9pm.  Rules are available in the casino.

La Bohème comes to Monaco

Puccini’s classic, first brought to life in 1896 and recognised today as one of the world’s greatest operas, is being brought to life for four nights later this month at the Salle Garnier of the Opera de Monte-Carlo.
Organised by the Opera de Monte-Carlo and featuring Irina Lungu, Mariam Battistelli, Andeka Gorrotxategi, Davide Luciano, Boris Pinkhasovich, Nicolas Courjal, Fabrice Alibert, Guy Bonfiglio, the Chorus of the Opéra de Monte-Carlo, the Children’s Choir of the Rainier III Academy and the Monte-Carlo Philharmonic Orchestra conducted by Daniele Callegari, this epic Italian opera is one everyone should see at least once in a lifetime.
Giacomo Puccini’s fourth opera ranks amongst his best-loved and is a benchmark of the Italian lyrical repertoire. The tragic love story set in 1830’s Paris tells the tale of four creative friends living in a shabby garret and without a nickel to rub between them for food or rent. When one of their number, Schaunard returns home on Christmas Eve with cash in hand, the friends decide to splurge on a meal out. Poet Rodolpho remains behind to finish his writing when a knock at the door interrupts him. He opens the door to find Mimí, his seamstress neighbour with whom he instantly falls in love.
Mimí and Rodolpho are happy together for a time, but Rodolpho sees that Mimí has tuberculosis, and is cruel to her in an attempt to get her to dump him and find a wealthy patron who will care for her better than he can.
His ploy works and he resumes life in the garret with a sad heart. Mimí does, in fact, find a rich count who takes care of the dying girl. As the end for her nears, she is brought back to the fold by a girlfriend of one of Rodolpho’s friends. There, she dies with her true love and true friends.
Their misfortunes and joys are presented in such an authentic and touching way as to involve the audience at the deepest levels. The opera represents one of Puccini’s greatest triumphs and plays today as it did over a century ago.
The gala opening will be Friday 24th January at 8pm, followed by performances on Wednesday, 29th January at 8pm, Sunday, 26th January and 3pm and Friday 31 January at 8pm.
For more info and tickets, visit www.opera.mc

New facilities at CHPG amid expansion

Despite a massive expansion project in the works, the current Princess Grace Hospital continues to stay on the cutting edge with the introduction of new equipment and technologies. 

HSH Prince Albert II recently visited the Princess Grace Hospital (CHPG) in order to deliver his annual New Year’s wishes to the staff, when he was presented with their interesting newest developments.  

The hospital has recently acquired two state-of-the-art scanners, one diagnostic and the other interventional, which he was shown, as well as a completely renovated Ear, Nose and Throat (ENT) department, which he visited.

At the end of the tour, the Sovereign Prince attended a ceremony where Benoîte de Sévelignes, the hospital’s director, gave a rundown of 2019. Admissions increased by 3.5% last year, and the number of surgeries rose by 2%, but the average length of stays decreased – 80,000 patients were treated in 2019 in total.

On the other side, the hospital boasts 200 physicians and a permanent staff of 2,296 along with another 242 agents on fixed-term contracts. Nearly 80% of the staff benefitted from training in the last 12-month period, learning the latest techniques and philosophies presented by the medical world.

For the year ahead, the initial stages of the digitisation process are underway and will continue throughout the year and the website will continue to be updated, soon offering an app called ‘My CHPG’.

In addition to the new scanners, this year will also see a new gamma camera for the nuclear medicine department and a complementary pet-scanner.

The Louis II Pavilion renovations are now underway and are anticipated to be complete in a few months’ time.

The first major phase of the new hospital is planned for 2026 and includes the entire southern part of the building, which will be the home of most of the hospital’s services, such as emergency, operating theatres, medical imaging, hemodialysis and the larger technical platforms. There will also be a new car park and gazebo area.

The current building will be completely renovated and will contain the maternity wards, the polyclinic and the Louis II Pavilion. The project completion date is 2032 for all renovation and construction. In the meantime, the hospital will continue to function as normal, offering the same high level of care as ever.  

 
Photo: © Direction de la Communication / Manuel Vitali