A new report by France’s Centre for Studies and Expertise on Risks, the Environment, Mobility, and Development (CEREMA) has identified more than 860 primary residences and holiday homes along the coastline of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region that could be at serious risk of damage or destruction due to coastal erosion by 2050. The situation is expected to worsen by the end of the century, with more than 22,000 homes projected to be at risk by 2100.
CEREMA’s report casts a long shadow over the futures of the municipalities located on France’s Mediterranean coastline, many of which are likely to be at risk of coastal erosion and rising sea temperatures caused by global warming before this century is out. In the PACA region alone, a staggering 22,189 homes are projected to be threatened by considerable damage, if not complete destruction, by 2100, up from an already alarming 868 homes that will be at risk by 2050.
PACA’s coastline spans 1,035 kilometres, equivalent to 43% of France’s Mediterranean shore. Approximately 5 million PACA residents, or 80% of the population, live close to the sea, with the majority residing in major cities such as Marseille, Toulon, Cannes, and Nice.
By 2050, CEREMA forecasts that coastal erosion will affect 224 homes in Bouches-du-Rhône, 433 in Var, and 211 in Alpes-Maritimes. These figures account for both permanent and holiday residences.
By 2100, the erosion risks will intensify, affecting 10,703 homes in Bouches-du-Rhône, 9,809 in Var, and 1,677 in Alpes-Maritimes.
The threat extends beyond private homes too. In 2050, 464 business premises and around 10 campsites are expected to be at risk. Additionally, transportation infrastructure, including roads and railways, will require significant adaptations.
Experts say that the challenge will be to find solutions for each unique site, from land restoration and renaturalisation projects to strategic withdrawal, that respond to the diverse geographical and socio-economic demands of the zones while not further endangering the population and the environment. They stress that there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ answer to the issue.
To compile the report, CEREMA’s team of researchers cross-referenced data on climate events, infrastructure vulnerability and exposure to identify key areas at risk, using the IPCC’s temperature projections for 2030 (+2°C), 2050 (+2.7°C) and 2100 (+4°C), to determine how natural hazards and extreme events, such as floods, heatwaves and coastal submersion, will evolve and ultimately impact the region.
In the last five decades, France’s coastline has contracted by around 30 km² – around 4,200 football pitches.
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