Disappointing – but unsurprising – first quarter of 2020

The latest statistics show that the overall economic performance across Monaco was down significantly in the first quarter of this year as the Principality grappled with the effects of the Covid-19 crisis. The only sectors to buck the trend were finance, real estate and construction.

IMSEE, the company used by the government to track statistics in the Principality, has released its trimestral report on the economy and this edition holds few big surprises.

Due to the Covid epidemic, the entire globe has faced not only a health crisis but also an economic one. Even Monaco has suffered some setbacks in this first trimester, with only the finance and real estate/construction sectors holding their own in these extraordinary times.

The writing was on the wall as far back as February, though things accelerated with the lockdown that began on 16th March. When the crisis struck, it should be noted that the economy had been humming along at quite a good clip for the two previous years. It should also be noted that the statistics presented by IMSEE are comparisons for the same trimester in 2019, and not every indicator was downturned, though most were.

Foreign trade considers all trade done with every country except for France. The figures are what one would expect, with a massive 50.8% drop in the volume of imports and a 40.9% decrease in exports. Turnover was less disappointing, with a tiny 2.6% fall, but the hit to this aspect will become clear in the second trimester, when lockdown was in full swing.

The biggest downturns were seen in accommodation and food service, transportation and industry. Real estate and construction grew in this time period, though with modest gains. Meanwhile, resales during this time frame were up 13.5% over 2019, despite sales of new flats being down by two-thirds.  

The banking sector made it relatively unscathed as well in the first quarter. Deposits were up by 5.4% and the number of loans wass also up by 8.2%. There was a small dip in assets over the past year, -1.3%, but that is not a huge concern, according to IMSEE. 

Ending 31st March 2020, the number of private sector jobs in Monaco numbered 53,454, a 3% decrease on the year before. Hotels and restaurants were the most affected with a 10% drop in employees. Total working hours fell by 5%, though those who telecommuted or were on CTTR during this period are not taken into account.

This could have been much more severe, but the government acted quickly at the start of the crisis and passed a law disallowing employers to perform “unfair dismissals” whilst the epidemic had the world at a standstill.

Company creation was down as well, with -31.3% new businesses created compared to last year. There were 123 definitive closures this trimester as opposed to 148 in 2019, but the balance is still positive with 37 more openings than closures.  

People were buying fewer cars, and the number of new car registrations was down by 11.7%. Equally, public parking facilities were used less, showing a 13.4% drop in usage.