Dr. Nathalie Hilmi, who leads the Environmental Economics section at the Centre Scientifique de Monaco, has contributed as lead author and coordinator of Chapter 3, ‘Impacts and Risks’, in the latest report by MedECC (Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change). The report takes a close look at how Mediterranean coastal areas are being hit hard by climate change and economic challenges, offering solutions to protect these fragile regions.

The Mediterranean is the world’s top tourist destination, drawing a third of all international visitors. More than half of the EU’s coastal tourist infrastructure is located along these shores. But by the end of this century, sea levels could rise by a metre, damaging key infrastructure like ports and displacing up to 20 million people. Coastal tourism is particularly at risk from heatwaves, jellyfish blooms, and shrinking beaches, which could drastically change the region’s appeal.

Coastal agriculture is also feeling the pressure, especially in areas like the Nile, Ebro, and Po river deltas, where farmland is being lost to salinisation. Rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion are disrupting freshwater aquaculture, endangering key species. Fisheries are facing a combination of challenges, including warming seas, invasive species, and overfishing, all of which are threatening food supplies. According to the report, if current trends continue, temperatures in the Mediterranean could rise by up to 2.9°C by 2050. This would mean more droughts and marine heatwaves, which have already increased by 40% in the past two decades, leading to severe impacts on marine ecosystems. Acidification of the waters, already underway, is expected to worsen, posing a major threat to marine biodiversity and critical ecosystem services.

In the report, Dr. Hilmi emphasises that Mediterranean economies must move away from resource-intensive practices and adopt more sustainable methods. It calls for integrated coastal zone management that combines local action with regional collaboration. Decarbonising the region’s economies is key, with alternative fuels like biofuels, hydrogen, and batteries offering greener options for maritime transport. The report also highlights the potential of ecotourism, supported by green taxes and eco-labels, to drive sustainable development. Other recommendations include electrifying ports to reduce pollution from cruise ships and introducing policies to cut emissions from the tourism sector.

With insights drawn from over 1,000 scientific studies, this report is a roadmap for policymakers and local communities to take action. By identifying risks and offering practical solutions, it underscores the need for urgent efforts to protect the Mediterranean’s environment while supporting sustainable socio-economic growth.

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Photo credit: Nick Karvounis, Unsplash