French Economist Jean-Pierre Petit has told a room full of Monegasque entrepreneurs that he expects the war in Ukraine to last much longer than anticipated, and that inflation in Europe will continue to rise into next year.
Now that the world is moving forward again after the Covid crisis, information about the state of economic matters are at the forefront of many people’s minds. To offer some insight into that world, the President of the Cahiers Verts de l’Economie Jean-Pierre Petit took to the stage at the Hermitage Hotel on 16th September for an event organised by the Monaco Economic Board (MEB) and Jutheau Husson.
The French economist, who has been speaking in Monaco every year since 2018, explained his key points to an enthusiastic audience of around 120 entrepreneurs and businesspeople, which also included Pierre Dartout, Monaco’s Minister of State.
Petit looked at the conflict in Ukraine and noted the serious consequences reverberating through Europe as a result of it. He said he believed that this war is most certainly going to last longer than anticipated and blamed that on the irrationality of leaders in Moscow.
He touched upon the energy crisis as well and predicted that, in Europe, even with a 15% drop in consumption and a diversification of imports and production, it would not be enough to cover all needs. Certain sectors, such as transport, heavy industry, textiles and agri-business, will be most hard hit, he said.
On a more global scale, he stated that the situation reveals an overall slowdown in activity as a result of the energy challenges facing the world. China’s ongoing health crisis has slowed their growth, dragging down the entire region. He gave minor praise to the United States, whom he thinks is handling the situation better than most due to a lack of dependence on outside players for energy.
European households, he thinks, need to continue to be protected through support measures, and despite the risk of inflation, he says that maintaining current levels of activity will make it possible to limit decline and social consequences, though not eliminate them. Tellingly, he thinks inflation will peak soon, except in Europe, where indicators show it will rise until next year.
The President of the Cahiers Verts de l’Economie also said that interest rates are topping out, and called for caution with regard to share prices for stocks, as the upward trends in the markets has yet to begin.
The next MEB economic conference will take place on 4th October during the Monaco Business fair, with the intervention of Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities.
Photo above: From left to right Président of MEB Michel Dotta, Minister of State Pierre Dartout, Président des Cahiers Verts de l’Economie Jean-Pierre Petit, and Hervé Husson, Président of Jutheau Husson. Credit: MEB / Carte Blanche