The Monaco Economic Board (MEB) has hosted its annual global economic outlook conference at the Marius restaurant, welcoming world-renowned forecaster Christophe Barraud. The event provided the Principality’s financial community and entrepreneurs with a precise, expert analysis of an increasingly fragmented global landscape.
MEB Chairman Michel Dotta opened the proceedings in late May by highlighting Barraud’s distinguished track record, noting his repeated ranking by Bloomberg as the world’s leading forecaster for the United States, the eurozone, and China. Matteo Mescolini, CEO of EFG Bank Monaco, also addressed the assembly, reinforcing his institution’s commitment to the local business community and praising the speaker’s profound analytical rigour.
A world of fragmentation
Christophe Barraud, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management and Research at Lior Global Partners, introduced his outlook by framing the current global climate as one defined by divergent monetary and fiscal policies, underscored by intense geopolitical, political, and climate-related uncertainties. These systemic pressures are exerting a palpable drag on global activity. Projections suggest a distinct deceleration in worldwide growth, expected to dip to 2.8% in 2026—a notable decline from the previous year’s 3.4% and the first instance of growth falling below the 3% threshold since the COVID-19 crisis.
Divergent dynamics: China, the US, and Europe
Barraud provided a detailed examination of the three major economic powers, noting that their trajectories are moving in markedly different directions.
China: Navigating a strategic shift: Barraud continues to favour China as a focal point for analysis, noting that while data remains complex to verify, it remains the epicentre of significant economic activity. Despite a 5% growth showing in the first quarter, the foundation remains fragile due to a cooling property market and softening domestic consumption. To counter this and mitigate the impact of Western trade barriers, Beijing is deploying record liquidity—with a combined real deficit exceeding 9% of GDP—to accelerate technological self-sufficiency. The government is prioritising high-value-added sectors, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, with Barraud forecasting 4.6% growth for the nation in 2026.
The United States: The ‘K-shaped’ resilience: The US economy is forecast to avoid a recession in 2026, with growth expected to reach 2.2%. This resilience is bolstered by extensive fiscal stimulus and robust spending by high-net-worth households, alongside sustained investment in artificial intelligence. However, Barraud cautioned against viewing this as a uniform recovery, describing it instead as “K-shaped.” While stock indices hit record highs, lower-income households face increasing financial strain, evidenced by rising consumer credit defaults. With inflation projected at 3.4%, the Federal Reserve faces limited scope for aggressive rate cuts this year.
Europe: The shadow of stagflation: Europe faces the most significant challenges, remaining highly susceptible to international tensions and US trade policies. The eurozone is currently contending with the threat of stagflation, as rising energy costs and restrictive bank credit conditions suppress business investment and consumer activity, particularly in the services and hospitality sectors. With sluggish growth revised down to 0.5% and inflation expected to reach 3.1% in 2026, the region remains at risk of a technical recession.
Engaging the Principality’s decision-makers
The conference drew more than 90 local decision-makers, with the Q&A session highlighting a keen interest in China—a timely focus as the MEB prepares for an economic mission to the region this autumn. The evening concluded with a networking cocktail, offering attendees a unique opportunity to engage with Barraud, an expert celebrated for his rare ability to render the complexities of the global economy both accessible and actionable.
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