Macron orders nuclear warhead increase and unveils European Deterrence Strategy

French President Emmanuel Macron has ordered an increase in France’s nuclear warhead stockpile and outlined an ambitious new “forward deterrence” strategy for Europe, delivering one of his most significant security addresses in years from a ballistic-missile submarine base in Brittany.

“I have ordered an increase in the number of nuclear warheads in our arsenal,” Macron told his audience at the north-western French base. In a notable departure from previous practice, he added that France would no longer publicly disclose the size of its nuclear arsenal.

The speech, which lasted 45 minutes, comes at a moment of heightened European anxiety, with Russia’s war in Ukraine ongoing and conflict continuing to escalate across the Middle East. French officials had stressed that the address was planned well in advance of recent developments.

Eight European partners on board

At the heart of Macron’s proposal is what he described as a “forward nuclear deterrence strategy,” which he was careful to frame as complementary to, rather than a replacement for, NATO’s existing structures. France, he said, could carry out “circumstantial deployments” of strategic capabilities linked to nuclear deterrence among European allies, beginning with joint exercises.

Eight countries have expressed interest in the programme: the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark. Under the arrangement, those nations would be able to host strategic air forces from the French Air Force, dispersed across the continent.

Shortly after the speech, Paris and Berlin issued a joint statement confirming a new high-ranking nuclear steering group between the two countries, with Germany set to participate in French nuclear exercises and joint visits to strategic sites.

Sovereignty remains non-negotiable

Despite the collaborative framing, Macron was unambiguous on the question of control. “There will be no sharing of the final decision,” he said, adding that assessments of France’s vital interests would remain exclusively sovereign. He also announced that Paris, London and Berlin would cooperate on very long-range missile development as part of the broader European Long Range Strike Approach launched in 2024, which also includes Italy, Poland and Sweden.

In a further announcement, Macron revealed that France’s next ballistic-missile submarine would be named Invincible and is expected to enter service in 2036.

France holds an estimated 290 nuclear warheads according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and remains the only nuclear power within the European Union — a fact that lends particular weight to any shift in its strategic posture. Globally, nine countries are known or believed to possess nuclear weapons: Russia, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.

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Photo credit: Stephen Cobb, Unsplash