Business & Finance
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With Halloween approaching, hopefully markets won’t be spooked by this week’s batch of macro data (and by the ghost of a no-deal Brexit).
Needless to say, Brexit is the key event to look out for. Although it remains hard to call the final outcome, we believe that the chances of a resolution have now increased after PM Johnson obtained Parliamentary support for his Brexit bill. Meanwhile, given the protracted uncertainty, we wouldn’t be surprised to see gloomy manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) out of the UK.
In the US, all eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy meeting on 30th October, with the central bank expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut on the back of slowing global growth. Although the Fed is unlikely to start a full easing cycle, as trade tensions seem to be receding, much will depend on the latest domestic quarterly growth number. The advance in third-quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to edge down to 1.5% on an annualised basis from 2% in Q2, given recently deteriorating US leading indicators.
While the struggles of the corporate sector are known, we would be cautious to write off the consumer too quickly and instead wait to see next week’s employment numbers. Consensus points to a slight moderation in the unemployment rate, but this should be offset by a modest pick-up in wage growth.
In the eurozone, the quarterly GDP reporting season continues. The area is likely to avoid a recession in the three months to September, although growth should remain subdued at 0.2% quarter on quarter. With the manufacturing sector stuck in contraction territory and weaker imports suggesting softer domestic consumption, markets remain on the look-out for signs of improving macro data. Much-needed relief could come from the labour market, should September’s unemployment rate remain unchanged at 7.4%, the lowest level since 2008.
Meanwhile in China, the economy is likely to continue in “soft-landing” mode, following the weakest GDP growth rate in 26 years seen in Q3. Although premiers Trump and Xi are expected to seal their “phase 1” trade deal next month, tariffs remain in place and a definitive resolution is still far from done. So, we wouldn’t be surprised to see continued weakness in October’s manufacturing PMI, although the temporary trade truce should release some downward pressure from the manufacturing sector.
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Monaco’s private sector saw a 2.9% rise last year in workers holding full time contracts over the year before.
SBM has closed all of its hotels in Monaco except the Hôtel de Paris and the Monte-Carlo Bay Hotel & Resort, accommodating long-term guests and those who are unable to return home.
Monaco’s Minister of State Serge Telle has revealed that a €1,000 bonus will be paid to all public service officials and agents who have been fully mobilised during the coronavirus crisis.
Companies in the Principality who wish to apply for Reinforced Total Temporary Unemployment (CTTR) for their employees can now carry out the procedures online.
Monnaies de Collection Monaco is about to offer at auction at the Hotel Metropole on May 20 an unusual gold medal with connections to the Californian Gold Rush. The medal of Napoleon III was issued by a French organisation that sponsored French settlers who sought a new life in the Gold Rush in the 1850s.The large medal was minted in 1856 for the Société des lingots d’or, whose aim it was to send 5,000 unemployed Frenchmen to the gold mines of California and pay for their passage. A lottery was held to choose the future settlers and registered applicants were selected randomly by the prefecture. The winners received a sum of money with a ticket to the United States. In order to attract attention, a jackpot was offered in the form of a gold ingot worth 400,000 francs, which was put on exhibition at Montmartre. The medal in the auction was issued by the society at about the same time, but its purpose or role is unknown. The medal has an estimate of €30,000. Other artefacts connected to Napoleon III are being offered in the auction, which offers “perhaps the largest collection of Napoleon III patterns, including an exceptional set of uniface patterns from the 1 centime to the 100 francs,” MDC said.