Weather
Monaco, MC
broken clouds
11.8 ° C
13.9 °
9.4 °
76%
4.6kmh
75%
Fri
15 °
Sat
16 °
Sun
16 °
Mon
15 °
Tue
15 °
Breaking News

Boy George makes world art debut in Monaco at G&M Design Gallery

Markets weekly

Markets weekly

By Staff Writer - October 29, 2019

With Halloween approaching, hopefully markets won’t be spooked by this week’s batch of macro data (and by the ghost of a no-deal Brexit).

Needless to say, Brexit is the key event to look out for. Although it remains hard to call the final outcome, we believe that the chances of a resolution have now increased after PM Johnson obtained Parliamentary support for his Brexit bill. Meanwhile, given the protracted uncertainty, we wouldn’t be surprised to see gloomy manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) out of the UK.

In the US, all eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy meeting on 30th October, with the central bank expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut on the back of slowing global growth. Although the Fed is unlikely to start a full easing cycle, as trade tensions seem to be receding, much will depend on the latest domestic quarterly growth number. The advance in third-quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to edge down to 1.5% on an annualised basis from 2% in Q2, given recently deteriorating US leading indicators.

While the struggles of the corporate sector are known, we would be cautious to write off the consumer too quickly and instead wait to see next week’s employment numbers. Consensus points to a slight moderation in the unemployment rate, but this should be offset by a modest pick-up in wage growth.

In the eurozone, the quarterly GDP reporting season continues. The area is likely to avoid a recession in the three months to September, although growth should remain subdued at 0.2% quarter on quarter. With the manufacturing sector stuck in contraction territory and weaker imports suggesting softer domestic consumption, markets remain on the look-out for signs of improving macro data. Much-needed relief could come from the labour market, should September’s unemployment rate remain unchanged at 7.4%, the lowest level since 2008.

Meanwhile in China, the economy is likely to continue in “soft-landing” mode, following the weakest GDP growth rate in 26 years seen in Q3. Although premiers Trump and Xi are expected to seal their “phase 1” trade deal next month, tariffs remain in place and a definitive resolution is still far from done. So, we wouldn’t be surprised to see continued weakness in October’s manufacturing PMI, although the temporary trade truce should release some downward pressure from the manufacturing sector.

For more information contact Barclays Private Bank in Monaco by clicking here or on +377 93 15 35 35

shares
SHARE
Previous articleLeclerc’s Mexican Grand Prix standoff
Next articleMonaco’s wealthiest citizen is a woman

daily

November 21, 2019 | Business & Finance

Markets Weekly

Cassandra Tanti

A fresh batch of key macro data out next week from the main developed economies look set to be mixed as markets are bouyed by fresh optimism over declining trade tensions. The second estimate of US gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to confirm that the economy expanded by 1.9% in the three months to […]

0
November 17, 2019 | Business & Finance

First edition of Su-MEET a success

Stephanie Horsman

Government representatives, business leaders and officials from free and special economic zone nations around the world have come together for the first Su-MEET conference in Monaco. Held in the Crystal Room at the Fairmont Hotel, the two day event organised by the World Federation of Free and Special Economic Zones (FEMOZA) with the full cooperation […]

0
November 15, 2019 | Business & Finance

Monaco and Singapore meet to share digital experiences

Stephanie Horsman

The similarities between Monaco and Singapore in the journey towards a complete digital transition were highlighted during a visit from the Singaporean Minister of Foreign Affairs in charge of the Smart Nation, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan. Minister Balakrishnan was greeted last Thursday by his local counterpart, Frédéric Ganta, the Interministerial Delegate in charge of the Digital Transition for […]

0
November 14, 2019 | Business & Finance

Monaco’s economic mission in Turin

Stephanie Horsman

The Monaco Economic Board (MEB) recently hosted an event in Turin, Italy featuring the Monte Carlo Ballet in an effort to strengthen bonds between the two regions. Turin is the undisputed centre of the Piedmont region of Italy. Not only is it the regional capital, it is also the economic hub where success stories abound […]

0