The United Nations’ weather agency has warned that El Niño is intensifying towards what could be the strongest event ever recorded, describing it as “off the charts” and forecasting with near-certainty that it will persist into 2027, raising the risk of extreme weather around the world.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) issued the warning on Thursday at a press conference in Geneva, saying its forecasts showed a near 100 per cent likelihood that El Niño would last until February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. It was the first time the agency had expressed such a degree of certainty.
‘Off the charts’
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
Sample Pacific Ocean temperatures in this year’s event — one of only four classed in the top “very strong” bracket in records dating back to 1950 — were already more than two degrees above normal, according to the WMO.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the science left no room for doubt about what was unfolding. “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” he said.
What El Niño means for the weather
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months. A very strong event can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide and fuel extreme weather such as typhoons.
The pattern often brings dry conditions and drought to Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, while the west coast of South America, East Africa and the southern United States frequently see heavy rainfall. Europe tends to be less affected. This year’s event has already hit soft commodities in tropical regions, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s “dry corridor”.
Warming into 2027
The WMO said El Niño would peak towards the end of this year, though its effects on global temperatures would carry into 2027. Average temperatures are often especially high in the year after an El Niño: 2024, the hottest year on record at around 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels, followed one.
“Normally after an El Niño event we tend to see a pulse in the global temperatures — a temporary one,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO’s chief of climate prediction services, referring to 2024. “2027 has the potential to be the warmest on record.”
Stepping up preparedness
Saulo said the agency was increasing its preparedness and early-warning efforts. “WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said.
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